| 20 June 2023
If China's neighbors, both near and far, had the opportunity to send a message to Presidents Xi Jinping and Joe Biden in the past 48 hours, it would likely have been a plea for them to "sort things out." The recent visit of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Beijing, where he became the highest-ranking US diplomat to meet President Xi since 2018, brought a collective sigh of relief to the countries that would be on the frontlines of any conflict between the United States and China.
Countries throughout the Pacific region, including Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia, as well as Southeast Asian economies and Pacific island nations, all have a stake in the stability of the relationship between the two superpowers. They find themselves caught between Chinese and American overtures, with neither side being a clear choice. "Everyone is learning to live with China-US rivalry, but no one wants to choose between them," says John Delury, Professor of Chinese Studies at Seoul's Yonsei University. The recent talks between Blinken and Xi, therefore, provided a glimmer of hope as both sides sought to portray themselves as responsible actors on the global stage.
During the two-day visit, Blinken held meetings with China's top diplomats, Wang Yi and Qin Gang, before finally meeting with President Xi at the Great Hall of The People. While the exact details of the talks were not disclosed, Xi acknowledged "progress" and "agreements on specific issues." Meanwhile, President Biden praised Blinken for his efforts but acknowledged the numerous areas of profound disagreement between the two countries.
Despite the lack of major breakthroughs and the presence of qualifiers in the readouts of the meetings, the overall reaction has been one of hope rather than disappointment. This is a reflection of how low expectations were going into the talks. The US-China relationship has been strained, and there is growing concern about the potential for conflict, which has alarmed the region. A recent survey by the Eurasia Group Foundation revealed that over 90% of respondents in South Korea, the Philippines, and Singapore expressed worries about a confrontation between the two superpowers, with regional tensions seen as the most pressing challenge.
"The world does not want to see this relationship spiral out of control," warns Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund's Indo-Pacific Program. Countries in the region are anxious for the US and China to engage in dialogue and prevent an escalation of tensions. This sentiment is no longer solely driven by concerns about global trade and supply chains but has evolved into a battle for influence that forces regional countries to make difficult choices regarding their own security.
Historical grievances and shared threats have led to a thaw between traditional US allies, such as South Korea and Japan, as they face Beijing's growing assertiveness and North Korea's missile launches. The Philippines has granted the US greater access to its military bases, and Japan is reportedly preparing military aid for Manila, signaling a potential return to Philippine shores for the Japanese military. The implications of the US-China rivalry extend even to the Pacific Islands, where both powers are vying for strategic influence. Washington signed a new security pact with Papua New Guinea after Beijing did the same with the Solomon Islands in May. Many countries in the region would like to see the resumption of a military hotline between China and the Pentagon, a proposal Blinken pushed during his meetings but one that the Chinese side did not agree to. The possibility of military clashes, particularly over Taiwan, is a major concern for the region.
With an increased military presence in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, the risk of a miscalculation leading to a military accident is higher than ever. Establishing reliable communication channels and reducing the risk of such accidents is
crucial, as stated by Bonnie Glaser. The meetings between Blinken and Xi were seen as a modest start, but the challenge ahead is significant. Beijing has repeatedly emphasized that Taiwan lies at the "core" of its interests, raising questions about the future of the US-China relationship and the potential for conflict between the world's two largest economies and nuclear powers.
The clock is ticking for Washington, as another election looms, and President Biden's Republican rivals have accused him of being soft on China. The pressure to show strength and resolve against Xi Jinping may influence the Biden administration's approach. As Bonnie Glaser notes, if the relationship is to be stabilized, it needs to happen now.
In the Asia-Pacific region, the recent meetings between the US and China offer a glimmer of hope for stability and ongoing dialogue. However, the challenges ahead are immense, and the expectations are high. While the visits do not guarantee a resolution, they demonstrate a willingness on both sides to defuse tensions and engage in dialogue—an encouraging sign for the Asia-Pacific region, which seeks a peaceful coexistence between the two superpowers.
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