China's Nuclear Arsenal Surges 17% in 2022, Alarming Global Security Experts

| 12 June 2023

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has revealed in its Yearbook 2023 that China's nuclear stockpile saw a significant increase of 17% in 2022. The report highlights the concerning trend of global nuclear armament, with China's arsenal expanding from 350 warheads in January 2022 to 410 warheads in January 2023. Experts predict that China's nuclear capabilities will continue to grow in the coming years, potentially surpassing the United States and Russia in terms of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) by 2030.

Hans M Kristensen, an associate senior fellow with SIPRI's weapons of mass destruction program, expressed his concerns over China's expanding nuclear arsenal. He questioned the compatibility of China's declared aim of maintaining minimum nuclear forces with its current trend of significant expansion. This sudden surge in China's nuclear capabilities raises doubts about its national security intentions.

While China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) is already the world's largest fighting force, the country has been actively engaged in modernizing its military equipment and weaponry. SIPRI's estimation of 12,512 nuclear warheads globally in January 2023 reveals that military stockpiles contain approximately 9,576 warheads earmarked for potential use, which is 86 more than the previous year.

Out of the total warheads, 3,844 are deployed with missiles and aircraft, while around 2,000 warheads are maintained in a state of high operational alert by Russia and the United States. SIPRI emphasizes that despite China's nuclear stockpile growth, the combined nuclear capabilities of the US and Russia still account for nearly 90% of the world's nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, the transparency surrounding nuclear forces has declined in both countries due to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

In February, Russia announced its suspension of the New START Treaty, a crucial element of US-Russian nuclear arms control. In response, the United States ceased providing Russia with updates on missile and launcher locations, considering it a retaliatory "countermeasure" due to alleged Russian violations. The strained relations between the two nuclear powers have further escalated after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's plans to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus by July have heightened concerns among Western allies. The threat of nuclear retaliation and the escalation of geopolitical tensions have raised alarm bells among experts. SIPRI Director Dan Smith warns that the world is entering a dangerous period in history, urging governments to find ways to cooperate in order to alleviate geopolitical tensions, halt arms races, and address the increasingly dire consequences of environmental breakdown and rising world hunger.

SIPRI's Yearbook also sheds light on the nuclear activities of other countries. India and Pakistan, both nuclear-armed states, appear to be expanding their arsenals and developing new types of nuclear delivery systems. North Korea, which made its nuclear program a priority in 2022, has significantly increased its warhead assembly and now possesses enough fissile material for between 50 and 70 warheads. Additionally, the United Kingdom plans to increase its warhead stockpile from 225 to 260, while France continues its nuclear modernization efforts.

Amidst these developments, Israel, although not publicly acknowledging its nuclear weapons, is believed to be upgrading its nuclear arsenal. Matt Korda, an associate researcher with SIPRI, warns that most nuclear-armed states are adopting increasingly aggressive rhetoric about the importance of nuclear weapons, and some are even issuing implicit or explicit threats of their use. This heightened nuclear competition poses a grave risk, with the potential for nuclear weapons to be deployed in anger for

the first time since World War II.

SIPRI's Yearbook serves as a crucial assessment of the global state of armaments, disarmament, and security. As the world grapples with the alarming growth of nuclear arsenals, international cooperation and diplomatic efforts become essential in preventing further escalation and ensuring a safer future.