Manipur Teeters on Brink of Civil War as Ethnic Clashes Escalate

| 22 June 2023

Last week, a retired lieutenant general in India's army expressed deep concern over the volatile situation in Manipur, a violence-stricken state in the country's northeast. Lamenting the state of affairs, L Nishikanta Singh tweeted, "The state is now 'stateless'. Life and property can be destroyed anytime by anyone just like in Libya, Lebanon, Nigeria, Syria, etc." The situation in Manipur has reached a critical point, with clashes between the Meitei and Kuki communities claiming over 100 lives and leaving more than 400 injured in the past two months.

The aftermath of the violence has seen approximately 60,000 people displaced, seeking refuge in around 350 camps. Efforts to contain the unrest by deploying some 40,000 security forces comprising army soldiers, paramilitaries, and police have proved challenging. Furthermore, only a quarter of the 4,000 looted weapons have been voluntarily returned since the outbreak of violence.

Mistrust between the warring communities has intensified, with both sides accusing security forces of partiality. More than 200 churches and 17 temples have been destroyed or damaged by mobs, and the homes of local ministers and legislators have been targeted and set ablaze. The situation has severely disrupted normal life, with a night curfew in effect across most of the 16 districts, schools closed, and internet services suspended. Additionally, protesters have blocked a major highway used for transporting essential supplies. The federal government's proposal for a peace panel to broker a truce has received a lukewarm response.

Binalakshmi Nepram, from the Northeast India Women Initiative for Peace, describes the current situation as "the darkest moment in Manipur's history," emphasizing that the level of violence surpasses anything the state has experienced in its modern history. Manipur is one of eight states in India's restive and remote northeastern region, with a population of over 45 million people belonging to more than 400 communities. The state has a history of ethnic violence, situated along the border with Myanmar.

Manipur's diversity, with 33 ethnic tribes, contributes to the deep divisions within the state. The region is home to approximately 40 insurgent groups, including Meitei, Naga, and Kuki rebels who have waged prolonged armed campaigns against Indian security forces. These conflicts stem from issues such as the controversial Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) and conflicting homeland demands. The Meiteis, who make up the majority of Manipur's population, are predominantly Hindus, while the Kukis and Nagas, the two major tribal communities, are mostly Christians.

The recent outbreak of violence in May was sparked by a dispute over affirmative action. Kukis protested against the demand for tribal status for the Meiteis. However, this controversy does not fully explain the depth of the ethnic clashes in Manipur. The underlying tensions are a result of a complex interplay of factors, including a long-standing insurgency, the government's war on drugs, illegal migration from Myanmar, land pressure, and a lack of employment opportunities that make the youth vulnerable to recruitment by rebel groups.

Experts also highlight the alleged complicity of politicians in the drug trade and their connections with militant groups, adding to the volatility in the region. Manipur's BJP-led government, under Chief Minister N Biren Singh, has launched a controversial campaign against poppy farming, exacerbating divisions between the government and a section of the Kuki community. The government's stance has led to mass protests by Kukis against what they perceive as selective targeting. The pressure on land further aggravates tensions, with the Meiteis resenting restrictions on land ownership and settlement in

the hill districts, as well as the entry of "outsiders."

The deep-seated mistrust between the communities has been weaponized over time. Small ethnic groups have been armed and trained by the government in Delhi to fight insurgency, as well as by those involved in illicit activities such as arms, drugs, and human trafficking. The dispute over two hills, claimed by both the Meiteis and Kukis, adds to the complexity. The Meiteis consider the hills sacred, while the Kukis assert ancestral ownership of the land beneath.

Criticism has mounted against Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his silence on the escalating violence. The majority of ministers and legislators from the ruling BJP have gathered in Delhi to strategize on resolving the crisis. The Kukis have demanded direct rule from Delhi and a separate administration, a demand that could potentially lead to further tensions with the Nagas. Lawmakers and ministers representing both communities have been unable to bridge the divide due to a lack of trust.

To defuse the crisis, some propose granting autonomy to tribal groups, citing the example of Tripura, where a third of the population enjoys self-governance through an autonomous district council. Others call for a Truth and Reconciliation Commission to address grievances and seek reparations for those affected by the conflict. Concerned observers fear that Manipur is spiraling towards a full-blown civil war, emphasizing the urgent need for inter-faith and inter-ethnic dialogue. However, no significant initiatives in this direction have been undertaken so far.

The road to peace in Manipur has always been precarious, with peace often enforced in a heavily militarized environment. At present, there is little hope for a swift resolution as both sides dig in for what could be a protracted confrontation. Memories of clashes between Nagas and Kukis in the early 1990s, which lasted for a year, loom large. A senior government official in Imphal opined that the situation could persist until one side gains dominance or both sides become fatigued. The road ahead looks long and uncertain for Manipur.