| 25 June 2023
Ukraine's top military expert, Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, has called on Kyiv to make a "strategic, principal decision" regarding how to capitalize on the current turmoil in Russia. One audacious move suggested by Romanenko is an order to invade western Russia, bypassing the formidable defense installations along the 1,000-kilometer-long front line in eastern and southern Ukraine. According to him, those who dare to make unorthodox decisions and implement them have a higher chance of success. He believes it is time for Ukraine to strike Russian forces from the rear.
While such a plan may have seemed like a fairy tale just a day ago, the panic and disarray in Russia caused by the advance of Wagner private military contractors towards Moscow could provide Kyiv with a golden opportunity to deliver an unexpected blow. However, Lieutenant General Romanenko acknowledges that Ukraine's Western allies would likely intervene to dissuade Kyiv from taking such actions, fearing Russia's use of nuclear weapons.
Recent events have paved the way for a potential breach into western Russia. The Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC), consisting of Russian ultra-nationalists fighting for Ukraine, has already launched three incursions into western Russian regions. These incursions were supported by former Russian prisoners of war fighting for Ukraine, as well as volunteers from neighboring Poland and Belarus.
On June 1, the RVC crossed into the western Russian region of Belgorod, attacking the city of Shebekino and seizing the village of Novaya Tavolzhanka. As a result, tens of thousands of civilians fled Belgorod, marking the first area beyond Moscow's control.
The head of the RVC, Denis Nikitin, has urged his supporters to prepare for further action. In a message on the RVC's Telegram channel, Nikitin described Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin as an ambitious patriot who has his own private army, capitalizing on the demoralization caused by Russia's prolonged bloody war and incoherent government.
While Kyiv's top military officials have distanced themselves from the RVC's incursions, the rebellion led by Prigozhin has caught them off guard. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has emphasized Russia's weakness and warned that the longer Moscow keeps its troops and mercenaries in Ukraine, the more chaos it will invite back home.
President Zelenskyy, in a tweet, said, "And the longer Russia keeps its troops and mercenaries on our land, the more chaos, pain, and problems it will have for itself later." Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has called on the international community to abandon false neutrality on Russia and provide Ukraine with the necessary weapons to push Moscow's forces out of Ukrainian territory.
The situation has drawn historical comparisons, particularly to the events of more than a century ago. The fear of another "1917," referring to the year of the Bolshevik Revolution and the downfall of Tsar Nicholas II, has been mentioned by both Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart. Putin has warned of a similar fate, while President Zelenskyy has expressed Ukraine's readiness to protect Europe from the spread of Russian chaos and evil.
As events continue to unfold, concerns are mounting among ordinary Ukrainians. The potential disintegration of Russia could trigger a massive influx of refugees and the use of nuclear weapons. However, some Ukrainians have responded with schadenfreude, noting that Putin's plans for a swift blitzkrieg in Ukraine have backfired.
While the situation remains highly volatile and unpredictable, analysts have drawn parallels to the historical "Times of Trouble" that followed the death of Russian Tsar Ivan the Terrible more than four centuries ago.
Observers suggest that the current developments resemble a condensed version of that era, with the emergence of oligarchic power and the rise of false leaders. The unfolding events in Ukraine and Russia continue to captivate the world, and the coming days will likely shape the future of the region.
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