Ukraine's Deputy Defence Minister: "Biggest Blow" Yet to Come in Counteroffensive

| 20 June 2023

Ukraine's ongoing counteroffensive campaign against Russian forces is set to deliver its "biggest blow" according to Ukraine's Deputy Defence Minister, Hanna Maliar. The operation, which aims to reclaim land occupied by Russian forces, has faced significant challenges as Moscow deploys all its resources to halt Ukraine's progress.

The Ukrainian military began the first phase of the counteroffensive two weeks ago, but reports suggest slow progress and staunch resistance from Russia. Moscow officials have gone so far as to claim that the Ukrainian offensive has failed. However, the Ukrainian military, which has been tight-lipped about the operation, announced that it has achieved small victories, liberating eight villages and approximately 113 square kilometers (70 square miles) of territory.

Maliar emphasized that the most critical phase of the operation is yet to come. In a message on the Telegram messaging app, she stated, "The ongoing operation has several objectives, and the military is fulfilling these tasks. The enemy will not easily give up their positions, and we must prepare ourselves for a tough duel. In fact, that is what is happening right now." Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed the Ukrainian counteroffensive's success, while some Russian military bloggers acknowledged that Kyiv has made minor gains at the cost of significant troop and equipment losses.

While independent verification of the operation's progress is challenging, Reuters has confirmed that Ukrainian forces have made advancements in the initial phase of the counteroffensive. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington DC-based think tank, has cited sources suggesting that Ukrainian forces might temporarily pause the counteroffensive to reassess their tactics for future operations.

ISW also emphasized that the primary phase of the counteroffensive campaign has yet to begin. "Ukraine has not yet committed the majority of its available forces to counteroffensive operations and has not yet launched its main effort," stated ISW in its daily situational analysis. The think tank noted that operational pauses are a common feature in major offensive undertakings and clarified that this pause does not indicate the end of Ukraine's counteroffensive.

Ukraine's President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, described the military offensive as a "situation of pressure" during his nightly video address. He affirmed that Ukrainian forces remain focused on Russian forces and are either advancing or defending their positions. Zelenskyy stated, "We have no lost positions. Only liberated ones. They have only losses."

Officials from two NATO member states revealed that Moscow is redeploying some of its forces in an attempt to predict Ukraine's next move. Intelligence officials from the United Kingdom and Estonia reported that Russia had been moving forces eastward along the front line, particularly from areas south of the Dnipro River affected by the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam on June 6.

Overall, the Ukrainian military maintains that its counteroffensive is progressing according to plan, although they acknowledge the difficult situation on the front lines. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi took to Telegram to explain that fortifications, dense minefields, and a large number of reserves have hampered the Ukrainian advance in the south of the country. However, he assured that the operation would remain on schedule. Zaluzhnyi's appearance alongside Chief of General Staff Serhiy Shaptala at a command center near the front was likely aimed at refuting rumors spread by Russian state media, which claimed he had been seriously injured in a missile attack in May.