| 10 June 2023
In a surprising admission, Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged that Ukrainian forces have initiated a long-anticipated counteroffensive and are facing "significant" losses in their attempt to break through Moscow's defense lines in Ukraine. Putin made these remarks during a meeting with other heads of states in the Eurasian Economic Union, held in Sochi on Friday.
While independent reporting from the front lines is scarce and the Ukrainian government remains tight-lipped about its military operations, Putin's statement raises questions about the extent of Ukraine's progress in penetrating Russian defenses and expelling occupying forces.
According to Putin, the offensive was evident through the Ukrainian army's use of strategic reserves. However, he asserted that the Ukrainian troops had not achieved their stated objectives in any specific area of the conflict. Although Putin did not provide specific details about the losses suffered by Ukrainian forces, he noted that they exceeded the expected ratio of 3-to-1 casualties typically observed in offensive operations.
The Ukrainian authorities have neither confirmed nor denied the commencement of their counteroffensive. The lack of information from Kyiv, coupled with the absence of independent reporting, makes it difficult to verify Putin's claims or assess the overall situation on the ground.
Various reports suggest that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has incrementally unfolded, with increased fighting reported in several regions along the front lines with Russian forces in the eastern and southeastern parts of Ukraine. Social media images depicting abandoned and damaged military equipment, including a Leopard 2 tank and Bradley Fighting Vehicles, seem to corroborate Russian reports of Ukrainian involvement.
The involvement of specialized units equipped and trained for the summer counteroffensive indicates the seriousness of Ukraine's operation. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) emphasizes that Putin's direct acknowledgment of Ukraine's counteroffensive represents a departure from his previous approach of maintaining distance from discussing battlefield realities.
The ISW highlights the Kremlin's adoption of a new information policy aimed at emphasizing the "Russian fight against Western-provided weapon systems" in Ukraine's counteroffensive. Claims by Moscow that the counteroffensive has been blunted, supported by pro-Moscow military bloggers focusing on destroyed and damaged Western military equipment donated to Ukraine, are premature according to the ISW.
The ISW's latest report suggests that the initial phase of Ukraine's counteroffensive will likely result in significant losses in terms of lives and equipment. It notes that the penetration phase of a mechanized offensive is traditionally the most dangerous and costly. Therefore, the true success or failure of this phase may not be immediately apparent.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine commended the heroism of his forces in his recent address, expressing gratitude for their dedication to the country. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar mentioned heavy battles in various locations, with the epicenter of fighting primarily in the Donetsk region.
The Zaporizhzhia region has become a focal point, where Ukrainian forces are reportedly attempting to identify weaknesses in Russia's defenses. If successful, this would enable Ukrainian forces to sever the land bridge connecting Russia to the Moscow-annexed Crimean peninsula.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive is expected to involve thousands of troops, many of whom have been trained and equipped by Western nations. The provision of additional military assistance worth $2.1 billion from the US Department of Defense demonstrates ongoing support for Ukraine's efforts.
As the conflict continues to unfold, the true outcome of Ukraine's counteroffensive remains uncertain. With limited access to reliable information, the international community eagerly awaits updates on the progress of the offensive and the potential impact on the region's geopolitical landscape
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